Jobs today, and tomorrow - the case for a switch to renewables
Speech in the National Assembly on October 17th 2018
The Science is unequivocal. The link between human activity and rising global temperatures is as strong, and as certain, as the link between smoking and cancer, according to American Association for the Advancement of Science.
The Paris climate agreement set a target of no more than 2°C global warming above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century, but also an aspirational target of no more than 1.5°C.
We’re currently on track for more than 3°C global warming by the end of the century.
We’ll likely burn through the rest of the aspirational carbon budget within the next 3 to 10 years and reach 1.5°C of warming by 2040.
1.5°C doesn’t sound like much, but it translates to more frequent and more extreme weather events, such as storms, heat waves and flooding. The kind of events that have a severe impact on human life.
The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming is the difference between an arctic that is free of ice once per decade, or once per century.
It is the difference between the complete collapse of the world’s coral reefs, or the loss of around 30% of this life sustaining ecosystem.
To avert this potential catastrophe, the world must embark on a determined effort to transition away from fossil fuels as a source of energy.
We can mobilise for War, we can recapitalise global banks with a massive programme of quantitative easing, and so we can recalibrate to mitigate for man-made climate change.
The simple takeaway from the science is that the faster we cut carbon emissions, the less severe the impacts of rising global temperatures.
Thankfully, much of the means of curbing our emissions already exist - we can act now.
This means that a key priority for Wales must be transitioning our energy system to renewable sources.
By energy I mean the electricity we use to light our offices and power our televisions, as well as the energy we will use to power our vehicles and heat our homes.
We must begin, like Germany and Denmark by targeting a decrease in our energy demand - by increasing efficiency and eliminating waste.
We can then start to decarbonise electricity.
The Welsh Government’s target is to produce 70% of our electricity from renewables by 2030. We currently produce just 42% of our electricity from renewables - and we need to move faster. We only have 12 years left to meet our target.
The technologies and means to do this already exist - an as stark as the science might be, there are huge opportunities for Wales.
We can be a leader in the development and deployment of wave and tidal renewables. There are firms in north Wales, and south Wales developing industry leading solutions to the key problems of at-sea renewable deployment.
We need to ensure that we capitalise on our potential in this sector.
Quite unlike the story of wind energy - where Wales was once a world leader that fell behind and lost out on the valuable manufacturing and intellectual property that emerged.
But the most immediate opportunities still lie onshore. In wind and solar, and even biomass. Tried, trusted technologies that are easy to build and maintain, and therefore relatively low cost.
We are close to a point where onshore renewables can operate without subsidy. Ending concerns that green energy will artificially inflate household bills.
The cost for new renewables is now significantly below that for nuclear, and competitive with new gas power stations.
One of the UK's most significant and under utilised wind resources is in rural Wales, but there is only opportunity to build out a small number of projects due to a constrained grid.
The lack of Grid capacity restricts other opportunities too.
At the moment most of rural Wales won’t be able to put in place significant Electric Vehicle charging, renewable heating or even build new employment sites because we can’t transport enough electricity.
We risk isolating the people of rural Wales, and parts of my constituency from changing technology and new opportunities.
It’s reported that storage of more than 1MW capacity can’t be installed in Wales until the latter half of next decade. This capacity is needed to support high generation and use of renewables, and until we sort this I don’t see how we will be able to meet our target of producing 70% of our electricity from renewables by 2030.
And more to the point, if we can’t accelerate this timetable it might be too late to prevent catastrophic global warming.
The new National Infrastructure Commission for Wales should consider grid as a priority, as should the National Development Framework being developed by Welsh Government.
To unlock funding to build this grid, could the public sector, through pension funds and other investment vehicles, invest in the grid?
Instead of maxing out our borrowing capacity on building a mega road which will lock in further emissions increases, built through protected wetlands - which after all are carbon sinks - we should prioritise projects which help us meet our commitments to future generations. And it could help us in the here and now. Enabling renewable energy generation will create a stable, long term economic return for the people of Wales.
So we must also withdraw funding from dirty energy; Welsh Local Government pension funds currently have over £1bn invested in fossil fuels. Money that could be put to far better use supporting a new green economy in Wales.
New research by the Institute of Welsh Affairs suggests that we could create 3,500 jobs just in the Swansea Bay City Region, which includes the Llanelli constituency, by switching to a 100% renewable electricity network. And most of this work would be in long term roles in operation and maintenance.
The IWA has been carrying out extensive research into what practical steps would be needed to turn Wales into a country that meets all its energy needs from renewable sources. That’s the kind of bold response we need to see to the warning of the Paris agreement. It's all very well us passing symbolic legislation, and being showcased at the UN, its action that counts.
Action for the long-term, that produces tangible benefits in the short term too.
The IWAs research suggests that the economic benefit of refitting housing to higher energy efficiency standards is around £1.6bn over a 15 year period. And because the firms that would carry this work out are locally rooted in the foundational economy, these benefits are likely to be retained in and by our communities.
We already have world leading expertise in sustainable building in our Universities, in our housing associations, and in our private sector, and we should use this to ensure that all new build in Wales meets stringent standards for carbon emissions.
So I’m pleased that the Minister for Housing has announced funding of £4m for an innovative green housing project in Burry Port in my constituency.
Of course, this isn’t just about electricity and heat. It is also about transport.
We must decarbonise our transport system.
The more immediate and effective solution is to break the dependency on private transport, moving people to active travel and public transport.
Getting more people walking and cycling has all sorts of wider benefits to the health and wellbeing of the nation too - it’s a solution that makes sense on all sorts of levels.
As significant and important an innovation as Electric Vehicles are, they aren’t the answer to this problem without a transformed electricity system.
All that said, Welsh Government should set out an ambition to end the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles in Wales - the UK Government has announced a ban by 2040, with other European countries going much earlier. Let’s set our aspiration higher, and let’s leverage the auto sector we have based in Wales to turn this into an opportunity.
Welsh Government is working on a new Wales Transport Strategy, it must place at its heart the need to decarbonise the transport sector and the need to ensure that the energy we do use for transport comes from renewable sources. Be that electricity, hydrogen, or biofuels.
Wales can use this climate crisis as an opportunity to become a world leader in the deployment of renewable technologies and decarbonisation of the energy system. The timescale is pressing, and we need to act, but there are opportunities to improve the lives of Welsh citizens.
The Science is unequivocal. The link between human activity and rising global temperatures is as strong, and as certain, as the link between smoking and cancer, according to American Association for the Advancement of Science.
The Paris climate agreement set a target of no more than 2°C global warming above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century, but also an aspirational target of no more than 1.5°C.
We’re currently on track for more than 3°C global warming by the end of the century.
We’ll likely burn through the rest of the aspirational carbon budget within the next 3 to 10 years and reach 1.5°C of warming by 2040.
1.5°C doesn’t sound like much, but it translates to more frequent and more extreme weather events, such as storms, heat waves and flooding. The kind of events that have a severe impact on human life.
The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming is the difference between an arctic that is free of ice once per decade, or once per century.
It is the difference between the complete collapse of the world’s coral reefs, or the loss of around 30% of this life sustaining ecosystem.
To avert this potential catastrophe, the world must embark on a determined effort to transition away from fossil fuels as a source of energy.
We can mobilise for War, we can recapitalise global banks with a massive programme of quantitative easing, and so we can recalibrate to mitigate for man-made climate change.
The simple takeaway from the science is that the faster we cut carbon emissions, the less severe the impacts of rising global temperatures.
Thankfully, much of the means of curbing our emissions already exist - we can act now.
This means that a key priority for Wales must be transitioning our energy system to renewable sources.
By energy I mean the electricity we use to light our offices and power our televisions, as well as the energy we will use to power our vehicles and heat our homes.
We must begin, like Germany and Denmark by targeting a decrease in our energy demand - by increasing efficiency and eliminating waste.
We can then start to decarbonise electricity.
The Welsh Government’s target is to produce 70% of our electricity from renewables by 2030. We currently produce just 42% of our electricity from renewables - and we need to move faster. We only have 12 years left to meet our target.
The technologies and means to do this already exist - an as stark as the science might be, there are huge opportunities for Wales.
We can be a leader in the development and deployment of wave and tidal renewables. There are firms in north Wales, and south Wales developing industry leading solutions to the key problems of at-sea renewable deployment.
We need to ensure that we capitalise on our potential in this sector.
Quite unlike the story of wind energy - where Wales was once a world leader that fell behind and lost out on the valuable manufacturing and intellectual property that emerged.
But the most immediate opportunities still lie onshore. In wind and solar, and even biomass. Tried, trusted technologies that are easy to build and maintain, and therefore relatively low cost.
We are close to a point where onshore renewables can operate without subsidy. Ending concerns that green energy will artificially inflate household bills.
The cost for new renewables is now significantly below that for nuclear, and competitive with new gas power stations.
One of the UK's most significant and under utilised wind resources is in rural Wales, but there is only opportunity to build out a small number of projects due to a constrained grid.
The lack of Grid capacity restricts other opportunities too.
At the moment most of rural Wales won’t be able to put in place significant Electric Vehicle charging, renewable heating or even build new employment sites because we can’t transport enough electricity.
We risk isolating the people of rural Wales, and parts of my constituency from changing technology and new opportunities.
It’s reported that storage of more than 1MW capacity can’t be installed in Wales until the latter half of next decade. This capacity is needed to support high generation and use of renewables, and until we sort this I don’t see how we will be able to meet our target of producing 70% of our electricity from renewables by 2030.
And more to the point, if we can’t accelerate this timetable it might be too late to prevent catastrophic global warming.
The new National Infrastructure Commission for Wales should consider grid as a priority, as should the National Development Framework being developed by Welsh Government.
To unlock funding to build this grid, could the public sector, through pension funds and other investment vehicles, invest in the grid?
Instead of maxing out our borrowing capacity on building a mega road which will lock in further emissions increases, built through protected wetlands - which after all are carbon sinks - we should prioritise projects which help us meet our commitments to future generations. And it could help us in the here and now. Enabling renewable energy generation will create a stable, long term economic return for the people of Wales.
So we must also withdraw funding from dirty energy; Welsh Local Government pension funds currently have over £1bn invested in fossil fuels. Money that could be put to far better use supporting a new green economy in Wales.
New research by the Institute of Welsh Affairs suggests that we could create 3,500 jobs just in the Swansea Bay City Region, which includes the Llanelli constituency, by switching to a 100% renewable electricity network. And most of this work would be in long term roles in operation and maintenance.
The IWA has been carrying out extensive research into what practical steps would be needed to turn Wales into a country that meets all its energy needs from renewable sources. That’s the kind of bold response we need to see to the warning of the Paris agreement. It's all very well us passing symbolic legislation, and being showcased at the UN, its action that counts.
Action for the long-term, that produces tangible benefits in the short term too.
The IWAs research suggests that the economic benefit of refitting housing to higher energy efficiency standards is around £1.6bn over a 15 year period. And because the firms that would carry this work out are locally rooted in the foundational economy, these benefits are likely to be retained in and by our communities.
We already have world leading expertise in sustainable building in our Universities, in our housing associations, and in our private sector, and we should use this to ensure that all new build in Wales meets stringent standards for carbon emissions.
So I’m pleased that the Minister for Housing has announced funding of £4m for an innovative green housing project in Burry Port in my constituency.
Of course, this isn’t just about electricity and heat. It is also about transport.
We must decarbonise our transport system.
The more immediate and effective solution is to break the dependency on private transport, moving people to active travel and public transport.
Getting more people walking and cycling has all sorts of wider benefits to the health and wellbeing of the nation too - it’s a solution that makes sense on all sorts of levels.
As significant and important an innovation as Electric Vehicles are, they aren’t the answer to this problem without a transformed electricity system.
All that said, Welsh Government should set out an ambition to end the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles in Wales - the UK Government has announced a ban by 2040, with other European countries going much earlier. Let’s set our aspiration higher, and let’s leverage the auto sector we have based in Wales to turn this into an opportunity.
Welsh Government is working on a new Wales Transport Strategy, it must place at its heart the need to decarbonise the transport sector and the need to ensure that the energy we do use for transport comes from renewable sources. Be that electricity, hydrogen, or biofuels.
Wales can use this climate crisis as an opportunity to become a world leader in the deployment of renewable technologies and decarbonisation of the energy system. The timescale is pressing, and we need to act, but there are opportunities to improve the lives of Welsh citizens.
Comments
I couldn't agree more with your sentiments. We could also look at changing peoples energy behaviours using Personal Carbon Entitlements, which is something I research and which was the subject of a cross-party motion in the Assembly last year (proposed by Simon Thomas and supported by Mike Hedges, David Melding and Adam Price). This would also be world-leading for Wales.
I'll email you a briefing note on it with my contact details; perhaps I could come and see you for a chat if you're at all interested?
Thanks,
Martin Burgess
Aberystwyth University